Object

Title: Forecasting Labour Productivity Growth in Norway for the Period 2012-2021 Using ARIMA Models

PLMET:

click here to follow the link

Title:

Forecasting Labour Productivity Growth in Norway for the Period 2012-2021 Using ARIMA Models

Creator:

Samavati, Pirooz

Subject and Keywords:

Norway   labour productivity   financial and economic crisis 2007-2009  
Norwegia   kryzys finansowo gospodarczy w latach 2007-2009   wydajność pracy

Abstract:

There appeared to be a change in labour productivity growth in Norway (a fall in the growth rate) in the middle of the 2000s, followed by a slight recovery at the end of the period under consideration (1971-2011). The 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis in Norway (which resulted from the banking crisis) caused an even greater drop in labour productivity growth to the extent that it in 2008 it reached its lowest point over the last three decades. After 2008, labour productivity growth started to increase. In this paper, in order to forecast time-series labour productivity growth in Norway for the period 2012-2021, the ARIMA model is fitted to Norwegian time-series labour productivity growth data obtained in the period 1971-2011. Using the Box-Jenkins model selection methodology, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) with no constant is selected as an appropriate model. As the selected ARIMA model indicates, labour productivity growth in Norway shall continue to increase very slowly and will ultimately reach a non-zero constant in the forecast period (2012-2021) following its recovery after 2008. Long-term forecasts for time-series labour productivity growth in Norway using ARIMA (1, 1, 1) with no constant will also reach a non-zero constant. Initially, it might be concluded that slow technological development as a result of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis could explain the slowdown in the recovery of labour productivity growth both in the forecast period (2012-2021) and over the longer term. However, due to the fact that the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis has changed the underlying process which Norwegian labour productivity growth rate followed in the immediately preceding period, and that a technological revolution, which can be considered as a contributing factor, also took place in that period, it seems unlikely that a single labour productivity growth time series will be rich enough to describe the variation in the data. From the data and the analysis performed, it seems plausible to conclude that the crisis has changed the underlying process determining the labour productivity growth rate in Norway (at least in the short term), and therefore forecasts based on such models are rather unreliable.

Place of publishing:

Wrocław

Publisher:

University of Wroclaw. Faculty of Law, Administration & Economics

Contributor:

Jakubowski, Sebastian. Red.

Date issued:

2013

Resource Type:

text  
tekst

Detailed Type:

article  
artykuł

Identifier:

oai:repozytorium.uni.wroc.pl:131261

DOI:

10.2478/wrlae-2013-0048

Language:

eng

Abstract Language :

eng

Relation:

Wroclaw Review of Law, Administration & Economics, vol.3, no.1, 2014, pp.126-147

Is version of:

click here to follow the link   click here to follow the link

Access rights:

Attribution  
Uznanie autorstwa

License:

Creative Commons - Attribution (CC BY 4.0)  
Creative Commons - Uznanie autorstwa (CC BY 4.0)

Rights holder:

Copyright by Wroclaw Review of Law, Administration & Economics, published by Sciendo

Autor opisu:

WR U/PAdbg

Object collections:

Last modified:

Oct 22, 2021

In our library since:

Oct 22, 2021

Number of object content hits:

1

Number of object content views in PDF format

1

All available object's versions:

https://www.repozytorium.uni.wroc.pl/publication/141927

Show description in RDF format:

RDF

Show description in OAI-PMH format:

OAI-PMH (DC)

OAI-PMH (METS)

This page uses 'cookies'. More information